Jared Sleeper on Which Software Companies Will Survive the "SaaSpocalypse"
Actionable takeaways and investment angles:
- The “SaaS apocalypse” drawdown is driven less by near-term fundamentals and more by terminal-value fears tied to AI-driven software commoditization. Near-term metrics (growth, net retention) are holding up for many firms, but valuation support is weak when GAAP profitability is thin.
- Software demand historically benefited from: high build and maintenance cost, integration complexity, change management, support needs, herd familiarity (training and standardization), and ecosystem and brand. AI reduces code-writing cost but does not eliminate the human and organizational integration and change-management problem.
- Open-source alternatives and free versions have long existed; support, reliability, compliance, and integration still create willingness to pay. Expect durable value in vendors with strong workflows, compliance or regulatory moats, and deep integration ecosystems.
- The “no floor” valuation risk: many public software companies report strong non-GAAP margins but weak GAAP profits due to stock-based compensation (SBC). Without real GAAP earnings or buybacks or dividends, it is harder for value investors to step in.
- Likely near-term response: cost cutting and layoffs as management reacts to price signals. This can boost margins and may improve valuation support, while also retaining top AI-savvy talent.
Companies and indices explicitly discussed (context, not endorsements):
- Salesforce (CRM), Atlassian (TEAM), IGV (software ETF) as examples of steep drawdowns and sector sentiment.
- Veeva (VEEV) and Freshworks (FRSH) mentioned as software examples; Freshworks noted for low EV/sales but limited GAAP profitability.
- Microsoft (Teams) and Zoom discussed in the context of herd familiarity and standardization.
- SAP, Oracle, Microsoft referenced for enterprise software installations and consulting ecosystems.
- Moody’s, S and P Global, and FICO cited as data and index businesses potentially more resilient, though still sold off with AI fears.
Investment-oriented framing:
- Favor software companies with strong GAAP profitability or a clear path to it (not just non-GAAP), plus durable integration and standardization advantages.
- Be cautious with firms where value is primarily code rather than workflow, data, compliance, or ecosystem.
- Watch for margin improvement catalysts (headcount reductions, SBC discipline, buybacks) that can establish a valuation floor.